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"I Wake Up Screaming" (12/6/04)

Man, have you seen the schism in the analyst community over Apple's stock today? After a slew of upgrades sent AAPL through the roof in the past few weeks, both Smith Barney and Needham downgraded the stock last week, saying that it just couldn't go much higher. But today, as faithful viewer mrmgraphics pointed out, JP Morgan raised its estimates on Apple's earnings and revenue, acknowledging that "concerns over Apple's valuation are certainly understandable given the stock's rapid rise," but stating that "expectations for the company's revenue and profit growth may still prove conservative." Meanwhile, First Albany also raised its estimates, calling "recent weakness in Apple Computer's share price an attractive investment opportunity," and Bear Stearns reiterated its "outperform" rating (that's good) and raised its target price from $60 to $72.

And yet, Thomas Weisel just sided with Smith Barney and Needham as a Negative Nelly by downgrading AAPL from "outperform" to "peer perform." Someone lock all these guys in a big steel cage and let 'em settle things with their fists. And maybe a few folding chairs.

On the plus side, the stock's, well, on the plus side. It closed today up $3.10, despite the downgrade, but we're not sure whether that's due to the raised targets and estimates, or to the rumors of a big merger making the rounds. Check this out-- you remember last week when the research firm Gartner predicted that three of the top ten PC manufacturers would be exiting the market within three years, right? Well, faithful viewer Derrick noted that about three seconds after we'd mentioned that, IBM was rumored to be selling off its PC business to China's Lenovo. And faithful viewer Adurbe tipped us off to one mother of a related buyout scenario posited by The Register: what if IBM is ditching its PC business in preparation to buy Apple?

Yeah, we know-- Disney, Apple, same difference. Sure, it sounds wacky, but think about it, because The Reg makes several interesting points. For one thing, IBM currently sells PCs with Intel's chips inside; wouldn't it rather sell Macs with IBM chips on the motherboard? And what better way to make a buyout more palatable (antitrust-wise) to the FTC than to divest itself of its existing personal computer business first? On top of that, an IBM buyout of Apple might also explain why Apple is "noticeably absent in the Power.org lineup" announced last week, a consortium of 14 third-party companies forming "a community of Power chip enthusiasts"; if Apple will soon be part of Big Blue anyway, what would be the point? Post-merger, Macs would finally stand a chance in Big Business, while IBM would get to ditch Linux for Mac OS X on its high-end servers, while also riding Apple's coattails into the consumer space. Everybody wins.

Well, everybody except for the Mac fans to whom such a proposition is downright heresy, we suppose, and there's a valid argument there: what happens to the coolness quotient of Apple's products once its employees get assimilated into the overly-corporate corporate culture of a company named "International Business Machines"? Then again, maybe there's nothing to worry about; let's not forget that Apple is largely comprised of ex-NeXTians-- including Steve Jobs himself, of course-- who essentially took over Apple from within when Apple bought NeXT. In other words, even if IBM does purchase Apple, it's far likelier that the original IBMers would start wearing turtlenecks and blue jeans than Steve would start wearing a suit.

So, there-- does that make the prospect of an IBM-owned Apple less gut-wrenching? It doesn't? Oh, well, we tried. And it is just a rumor, after all...

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Other Scenes From 12/6/2004

This scene was taken from the 12/6/2004 episode:

Monday, 11:37 PM: As analysts tussle over the value of Apple's stock, rumors swirl about a possible buyout by IBM. Meanwhile, the grapevine pegs the iPod mini as due for a storage capacity boost next month, and Apple headquarters gets visited by representatives of Kids and Pets Against Overtime...

Other scenes from this episode include:

Minis Getting Not-So-Mini: You know, there's really only one thing keeping us from buying an iPod mini: it's just too small. Not in terms of dimension, of course; physically, it may be just a little slip of a thing that Midwestern moms would be totally justified in calling an "eentsy-beents," but it's not so small that we'd worry about, say, accidentally inhaling it or absorbing it through our skin or something... Scene

Weirdness On Infinite Loop: Ah, life at One Infinite Loop: never a dull moment. At least, that's the way we imagine it: Apple employees constantly embroiled in a neverending series of high-speed car chases, daring archaeological raids on ancient temples for hidden Aztec gold, illicit office romances with the danger of discovery (and death) hovering over every stolen kiss... Scene

Click on one to see it. Or perhaps you'd like to see the whole episode as originally broadcast?


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In our latest edge-of-your-seat episode--

Thursday, 5:03 AM: Apple has its best quarter and year in the history of the company-- so of course its stock tanks. Meanwhile, Steve Jobs trots out new iPods that can show video (no, really!), and instead of new pro Macs, Apple introduces the latest iMac G5, complete with an integrated iSight camera and a remote control...

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What disappoints you most about the video iPod 1.0?
It doesn't get Cinemax
It requires far too much physical effort to cram a DVD into the Dock connector
You can't stick your face in the screen like with the TV in Videodrome
Showing home movies on the iPod makes it too easy for viewers to escape
I can fit 140 hours of TV in my pocket, but it sure is a hassle lugging this couch everywhere I go

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