The OTHER Holiday Hero (11/30/04)
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A moment of silence, please, for those poor investors who took their own lives today; AAPL dropped a whopping $1.39 a share in regular trading, triggering mass suicides among small investors who simply couldn't come to terms with the fact that the paper gain their 100 shares scored on Monday had been trimmed back from the price of a 40 GB iPod to that of a measly iPod mini. Bodies plummeted from high windows as hundreds of people jumped rather than live life with 9,000 fewer songs in their pocket. (Pity they didn't hold off a little while longer; AAPL's up 45 cents in after-hours trading, putting their gains back in reach of a 20 GB model. Won't the next-of-kin be pleased?)

So what do you think, is this the beginning of the end? Because we just don't see it, frankly; even if the iPod were the only thing that Apple had going for it right now, there's still a month's worth of holiday sales to rack up and the expected launch of those rumored flash-based models just a couple of weeks after that. And Apple has so much more to cheer about-- including stuff that ought to appeal to Wall Street and not just Mac geeks like us. The most recent rash of analyst upgrades was prompted largely by reports that demand for the iMac G5 is beating expectations so far, lending more credence to that recent survey which showed iPod-owning Windows users switching to Macs in almost frighteningly high percentages. On top of that, the iMac is showing up on a lot more "Best Holiday Gifts" lists than we expected, all of which adds up to a massive wad of cash sweeping into Apple's vaults.

Check it out: Fortune has highlighted the iMac G5 as one of the "Best Products of the Year" in the category of Electronics-- and if you've been wondering just who has deep enough pockets to buy iMacs as Christmas gifts, we're guessing that if they're out there, they read Fortune. Meanwhile, faithful viewer John Haytol tells us that the Washington Times has gone a step further, and informed its readership that the iMac G5 is officially its "Computer of the Year." Sure, the honor is diluted slightly by the fact that the runner-up is a (shudder) $599 eMachines box, but c'mon, good press is good press.

So between all this praise-laden press, the increasing trend of iPod users joining the ranks of Macdom, and the irresistible lure of the iPod reeling suckers into the Apple retail stores (and in front of the iMac) by the busload, the iMac G5 might wind up being a bigger story than the iPod when the holiday sales figures are finally released. Not in a units sense, of course; obviously Apple isn't going to sell four million iMacs this quarter. And probably not in a revenue sense either, simply because four million iPods is just too tough to outweigh. But we're gearing up to hear about a significant market share boost thanks to the iMac's popularity, and since Macs are higher-margin items and still Apple's primary source of revenue, we bet that Wall Street will respond favorably. After all, Apple's practically got the digital music market sewn up right now; the room for serious growth is in the Mac market, and any measurable sign of a real Windows-to-Mac migration might well tack beaucoup de bucks onto AAPL's share price.

That's pure speculation, mind you, so don't go blaming us if we wind up way off base. But one thing we're reasonably comfortable predicting is some solid iMac G5 sales action before the year's up. Whether or not that will translate into AAPL bounding to hitherto unseen heights remains to be seen, but personally, we're guessing that if those dearly departed investors' heirs hold onto their 100 shares, before long they'll have a paper gain that can cover the cost of a top-of-the-line iPod photo-- or heck, maybe even an iMac itself. Dare to dream.

 
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The above scene was taken from the 11/30/04 episode:

November 30, 2004: What with all the buzz about the iPod this holiday season, it's nice to see the iMac G5 get some well-deserved kudos too. Meanwhile, Apple misses its November launch of the Canadian iTunes Music Store, and Sony goes after the iPod-- again-- by finally adding MP3 support to its players and shipping them in five new colors...

Other scenes from that episode:

  • 5070: Late Crossing The Border (11/30/04)   Whoa, way to miss a forecast! It's one thing to promise a product release a full year in advance and fail to deliver due to technical hurdles tripping up a third-party supplier; sure, we were all disappointed when Uncle Steve's "3 GHz within a year" promise fell over and caught fire, but we all understood: after all, it was IBM who couldn't hack the 90-nanometer thing, which was hardly Apple's fault, and at least Apple had the decency to tell us that it wasn't going to hit Steve's target date a full three weeks before the deadline arrived...

  • 5071: Scrambling In Record Time (11/30/04)   Wow, isn't it amazing how quickly a company can move when it finally realizes it's getting the living snot kicked out of it? Barely five months ago, Sony debuted its tardy response to the iPod, the NW-HD1 Network Walkman; reviews of the device's design were largely positive, but for some reason Sony had decided to ship the thing with support for exactly one digital music format: the company's own proprietary ATRAC3...

Or view the entire episode as originally broadcast...

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